piątek, 15 lipca 2022

How Narendra Modi is remaking India into a Hindu state


The prime minister and his party are laying waste to the secular underpinnings of the constitution

May 14th 2022 | DELHI

The pattern is plain to see. On the occasion of a religious festival, youths affiliated to the sangh parivar, or the Hindu-nationalist "family of organisations", march through a densely packed slum. When the rowdy young men, sporting saffron-coloured clothes or flags and brandishing swords, reach a mostly Muslim neighbourhood, their chants turn to taunts and insults. Muslim boys start throwing stones. In the ensuing fight shops get looted, houses burned and lives lost. Reporters tally the damage. This is typically lopsided, inverting the proportions of India's 79% Hindu majority and 15% Muslim minority. No matter. The sangh gleefully choruses its mantra: "Hindus are in danger! Unite!"

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Over the past 50 years, Indian governments have repeatedly dampened such local eruptions by mouthing words of regret, paying a bit of compensation and tapping some retired worthy to write a soon-forgotten report. No longer. The Bharatiya Janata Party (bjp) which rules both at the centre in Delhi, the capital, and in about half of India's states, is itself a child of the sangh. Many of its top leaders started as foot soldiers in just the sort of gangs that so predictably spark trouble.

Small wonder that as a bigger-than-usual spate of nasty communal clashes broke out across a swathe of central India during this spring's festival season, bjp officials made scant effort to calm things. Instead they loudly invoked the right of Hindus to "practise their faith", blamed Muslims for the violence and demanded exemplary punishment. Following a mini-riot in Delhi on April 16th, provoked once again by sword-waving youths menacing a mosque, Kapil Mishra, a local bjp leader, quickly spun the events as a Muslim conspiracy. "They should be identified and their homes should be bulldozed," he declared. A few hours later bulldozers duly rolled in, smashing Muslim property for alleged building-code violations.

The increasing use of summary collective punishment is disturbing enough—the demolitions in Delhi followed identical post-pogrom targeting of Muslims in three other bjp-ruled states. More telling still has been the response from higher up in the party, and in particular from Narendra Modi, India's prime minister. The leader's reaction to months of sporadic communal violence and rising social tension, and to loud calls from activists, politicians and even retired civil servants for him to do something has been absolute silence.

To many Indians and in particular to the country's 200m Muslims, the world's biggest religious minority, the government's shrug of indifference to growing distress is deeply ominous. It does more than offer tacit approval to mob violence and mob justice. It suggests that in the emerging Hindu rashtra (state) envisioned by the sangh, some will always be more equal than others, with religious identity becoming a measure of citizenship. It also suggests that what lies in India's future may not merely be further sporadic, localised troubles, but something wider and more painful.

India has long stood out proudly in Asia, precisely because of its success in building a nation from an extraordinary diversity of religions and ethnicities. It has enjoyed both democracy and relative peace, even as its neighbours succumbed to majoritarianism. Pakistan tried to shove the Urdu language down Bengali throats, sparking a bloody war that gave birth to Bangladesh. Sri Lanka's Sinhala majority sought to lord it over the island's ancient Tamil minority, triggering a 26-year civil war that left 300,000 dead. Even tiny Buddhist Bhutan hounded out its entire Nepali Hindu minority—a sixth of its population—in the 1990s. Majority muscle-flexing has reduced all too many Asians from citizenship to tenuous subjecthood.

With its robust democracy, independent courts, noisy press and fissiparous diversity even within big categories such as Hindus, could India really embrace majoritarian rule? Surely this goes against the grain of its own history. In the messy partition at the end of British rule in 1947, Muslims who feared Hindu majoritarianism created the new state of Pakistan, while those who hoped for an all-embracing, secular country remained with India.

White flags

Over time, however, the secular notions enshrined in India's constitution have decayed. In 1992, when Hindu extremists demolished a 16th-century mosque, which they claimed was built on the site of the god Ram's birth in the northern town of Ayodhya, they sparked a decade-long cycle of bloodshed. India's establishment was, by and large, appalled. Yet in 2019, when the Supreme Court ruled that although the demolition was a crime, the property should be given to a Hindu trust, the same establishment cheered.

During this period the institutional vigilance needed to sustain pluralism had slowly eroded, with police, courts and the press across much of India growing partisan. The global wave of Islamist terror in the 2000s, which also struck India hard, did not help. The use of disparaging language about minorities was long shunned in polite society. It is now increasingly acceptable. Even as Muslims grew as a share of population, their numbers in Parliament, the civil service and security forces did not (see chart).

Hindu-nationalist dogma has filtered into mainstream discourse by a slow-drip process. This has been propagated by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh or rss, a volunteer service corps founded in 1925 and once regarded by many Indians as cranks. Myriad affiliated groups (including the bjp) with tens of millions of members, amplify the word. Their main message, that Hindus must unite to face imminent danger, may sound absurd in a country with an unassailable preponderance of Hindus. But the urgency and passion of the cry, set against the heroic narrative of a Hindu reconquista after centuries of Muslim and European rule over Mother India, is irresistible for many.

And as the bjp has found, promoting "Hindu consolidation" by pointing to a common enemy—generally Muslims—is electoral magic. It erases the divisions of caste and ethnicity that for decades fragmented the Hindu electorate, and in doing so gave minorities some weight in the game. Again and again the bjp has entered a contest, stirred up hatred, and walked off with victory. That success has brought more power and more money in a self-reinforcing cycle, such that even Mr Modi's political rivals now compete in burnishing their pukka Hindu credentials rather than in defending secular ideals, let alone defending actual Muslims.

In this way, a narrative of the awfulness of Muslims has grown increasingly entrenched, and is all the more easily exploited by the sangh's zealots. In states ruled by the bjp this shows in policies to counter such imagined abuses as "love jihad", "land jihad" and "job jihad", supposed campaigns to usurp Hindu women, property and opportunities. Petty rules are imposed to ban veils in schools, ban public prayers, ban the Muslim call to prayer and, in the bjp-ruled state of Karnataka this year, even to ban Muslim street traders from plying their wares near Hindu temples. Tightened restrictions on cattle slaughter, violently enforced in many parts by vigilantes tacitly supported by the state, have recently been followed by efforts to proscribe halal butchery of any kind. Yet another campaign seeks to delete Muslim-sounding names from Indian maps.

At the most extreme end of the Hindu-nationalist spectrum, speakers at public rallies across northern India in recent years have launched bidding wars of threats against Muslims, from mass rape to mass expulsion. On May 7th Hari bhushan Thakur Bachaul, a bjp politician in Bihar, in eastern India, declared that Muslims should be burned alive just like effigies of the Hindu demon Ravana.

All but a tiny portion of Hindus regard such talk as madly over the top. Yet in part because of the reluctance of either Mr Modi or his rss mothership to intervene, the demonising tone has become commonplace, and not just regarding the Muslims minority. Other groups such as Dalits, leftist activists (dismissed as "urban Naxalites") and liberal do-gooders (smeared as "libtards" and "pseudo-seculars") have become the targets of digital troll armies and, dismayingly often, of the law.

The large Christian (35m) and Sikh (25m) minorities are not spared, either. False rumours of conversion, in many cases fanned by bjp-appointed officials, have led to mob attacks on priests and church-run schools. When farmers, many of them Sikhs from Punjab, protested against farming reforms last year, the bjp tried to link them to Sikh separatist groups that mounted an armed insurgency in the 1980s.

Green light

Such charges carry ominous echoes. In 1984, angered by military operations in Punjab, Sikh bodyguards assassinated Indira Gandhi, the prime minister of the day. Anti-Sikh pogroms erupted in some 40 cities, with police often failing to intervene. The death toll is estimated at 10,000-17,000. Given the mounting drumbeat of intimidation against the far bigger Muslim minority, it is frightening to think what spark it might take to set off a similar conflagration today. And Mr Modi's record as chief minister in Gujarat, where his government did nothing to prevent bloodshed during anti-Muslim rioting in 2002, does not offer reassurance in case it does.

So far, India's Muslims have responded to the accumulating humiliations with remarkable cool. When the city's bulldozers growled into a Muslim part of Delhi on May 9th for more punitive "enforcement of building codes", residents simply surrounded them in such numbers that they could not move. But it would be foolish of Mr Modi to imagine that more and more wood can be piled on a pyre, without risk of burning the whole village down. 

This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the headline "Saffron nation"

AsiaMay 14th 2022

niedziela, 16 stycznia 2022

Polski Ład, ulga dla klasy średniej i ciąża. Absurdalny efekt zamieszania z nowymi przepisami


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Zasady dotyczące ulgi dla klasy średniej, które wynikają z przepisów Polskiego Ładu, mogą doprowadzić do zaskakujących wniosków. Chodzi o widełki przychodowe, w których należy się mieścić, by ulgę otrzymywać - a także, by podczas rozliczenia rocznego podatku nie musieć jej oddawać. To może się zdarzyć w przypadku długotrwałej choroby i zwolnienia lekarskiego, jak również urlopu macierzyńskiego. Wychodzi na to, że ciążę najlepiej zaplanować już na początku roku.

Co do zasady miało być wspaniale. "Lepsza i bardziej dofinansowana służba zdrowia, niższe podatki, wyższa płaca i zamożniejsze polskie rodziny. To właśnie istota Polskiego Ładu" - tak opisuje swój program rząd. Przekonuje, że dla 18 milionów Polaków ma on oznaczać niższe podatki, a "dla ok. 90 proc. osób płacących podatki w Polsce, nowe rozwiązania są korzystne lub neutralne." Teoretycznie rzeczywiście wielu rzeczywiście na Polskim Ładzie ma zyskać. Sprawę komplikują jednak szczegóły i na razie jednak mamy ogromne zamieszanie, chaos i pospieszne łatanie dziur w przepisach. Niepewni co do interpretacji niektórych z nich są nawet księgowi - pomimo organizowanych przez resort finansów spotkań wyjaśniających. 

Polski Ład. Absurdalne efekty zasad dotyczących ulgi dla klasy średniej 

Jeden z dość zaskakujących skutków Polskiego Ładu dotyczy ulgi dla klasy średniej. Co do zasady należy się ona przedsiębiorcom na skali podatkowej, a także pracownikom - ale tylko takim, którzy mają wyłącznie przychody z pracy, mieszczące się w widełkach od 5 701 zł do 11 141 zł brutto miesięcznie oraz od 68 412 zł do 133 692 zł brutto przez cały rok. Oznacza to, że przychody z tytułu zasiłku macierzyńskiego lub chorobowego, które wypłaca ZUS, nie są objęte ulgą, bo nie są to przychody z tytułu pracy. 

To ważne dlatego, że by mieć prawo do ulgi - i by go nie stracić - nie można przekroczyć widełek ani "od góry", ani "z dołu". Czyli zarówno dodatkowe niespodziewane wynagrodzenie, premia itp., jak i nagła utrata przychodów z tytułu pracy mogą pozbawić nas ulgi do klasy średniej. Ustawodawca nie przewidział tutaj wyjątku dla sytuacji losowych, jak długotrwała choroba, czy też ciąży.

Premier Mateusz Morawiecki prezentuje założenia 'Polskiego ładu'Polski Ład a umowa zlecenie. Czy pensja będzie niższa?

Ciąża w Polskim Ładzie. Ulga dla klasy średniej może być pułapką

O drugą z tych sytuacji zapytała czytelniczka Gazeta.pl, a na pytanie przekazaliśmy ekspertce w programie Q&A: "Co w przypadku, gdy kobieta korzystającą z ulgi dla klasy średniej w ciągu roku zajdzie w ciążę, pójdzie na zwolnienie lekarskie (powiedzmy na 3 miesiące), potem na macierzyński? Rozumiem, że jeśli nie uzyska minimalnego przychodu dla korzystania z ulgi, będzie musiała oddać pieniądze? Czy w takim razie zaraz po zajściu w ciążę powinno się składać rezygnację z ulgi?" 

- No wtedy to już za późno - zauważa Małgorzata Samborska, partner i doradca podatkowy Grant Thornton. - Idealnie byłoby zaplanować w styczniu, czy zdarzy nam się macierzyństwo, czy nie - dodała. Dlaczego? Tłumaczyła to na przykładzie: - Załóżmy, że mamy pracownicę, która zarabia 8 tys. brutto miesięcznie i nie ma żadnych innych dodatków. Co miesiąc pracodawca, przez pół roku załóżmy, rozlicza tę ulgę dla klasy średniej. To daje 48 tys. zł przychodów łącznie. Jeżeli od lipca ta pracownica zacznie dostawać zasiłek macierzyński, to nie jest on już przychodem z pracy, więc nie uzbiera do końca roku przychodów z pracy, w skali roku nie będzie mieć prawa do ulgi - opisuje. W takiej sytuacji całą naliczoną wcześniej ulgę trzeba będzie oddać przy rocznym rozliczeniu PIT: 

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Zobacz wideo"Polski Ład a ciąża. Czy stracę pieniądze?" [Q&A]

Tutaj nie pomoże wniosek do pracodawcy o zaprzestanie naliczania ulgi dla klasy średniej, bo ta korzyść została już uwzględniona we wcześniej wypłacanych pensjach. Taką rezygnację należy złożyć wcześniej - jeśli przewidujemy, że w ciągu roku przestaniemy się na ulgę "łapać" - najlepiej jeszcze przed wypłatą styczniowego wynagrodzenia. Chyba że liczymy, że konieczność oddania pieniędzy niejako zrekompensujemy sobie dzięki odliczaniu innych należnych nam ulg, na przykład na dzieci. Warto też pamiętać, że ulga ma różną wysokość dla różnych zarobków. Najpierw rośnie, do poziomu około 190 zł przy około 8500 zł miesięcznych przychodów i potem znów maleje. 

Henryk KowalczykKowalczyk: Polski Ład dość skomplikowany. Ale na zapoznanie "były prawie trzy miesiące"

Zręby reformy podatkowej w ramach Polskiego Ładu (wyższa kwota wolna, wyższy drugi próg podatkowy, ale jednocześnie zakaz odliczenia składki zdrowotnej od podatku) zostały skonstruowane w ten sposób, że traciłyby na niej - względem stanu z 2021 r. - nie tylko osoby najlepiej zarabiające (z zarobkami ponad ok. 12,8 tys. zł brutto miesięcznie), lecz także te z pensjami rzędu 5 701 zł do 11 141 zł brutto miesięcznie (68 412 zł do 133 692 zł w skali roku). Dlatego zaprojektowano "łatkę" - ulgę dla klasy średniej. To dwa dość skomplikowane wzory, które mają sprawiać, że dla osób z takimi wynagrodzeniami zmiany powinny być neutralne. Choć doradcy podatkowi już alarmują, że niekoniecznie takie będą.

Można spodziewać się kolejnych łat do Polskiego Ładu i niewykluczone, że opisywana tutaj zasada także zostanie zmieniona. 

Całą rozmowę z ekspertką można obejrzeć pod tym linkiem. 

Panic as Kosovo pulls the plug on its energy-guzzling bitcoin miners


Speculators rush to sell off their kit as Balkan state announces a crypto clampdown to ease electricity crisis

A bitcoin sign in front of a crypto exchange office in Pristina, Kosovo, 10 January 2022
A crypto exchange office in Pristina. Kosovo's government has banned cryptocurrency mining as an emergency measure for at least 60 days. Photograph: Valdrin Xhemaj/EPA
 in Brussels and Jack Butcher in Pristina
Sun 16 Jan 2022 08.30 GMT

For bitcoin enthusiasts in Kosovo with a breezy attitude to risk, it has been a good week to strike a deal on computer equipment that can create, or "mine", the cryptocurrency.

From Facebook to Telegram, new posts in the region's online crypto groups became dominated by dismayed Kosovans attempting to sell off their mining equipment – often at knockdown prices.

"There's a lot of panic and they're selling it or trying to move it to neighbouring countries," said cryptoKapo, a crypto investor and administrator of some of the region's largest online crypto communities.

The frenetic social media action follows an end-of-year announcement by Kosovo's government of an immediate, albeit temporary, ban on all crypto mining activity as part of emergency measures to ease a crippling energy crisis.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are created or "mined" by high-powered computers that compete to solve complex mathematical puzzles in what is a highly energy-intensive process that rewards people based on the amount of computing power they provide.

The incentive to get into the mining game in Kosovo, one of Europe's poorest countries, is obvious. The cryptocurrency currently trades at more than £31,500 a bitcoin, while Kosovo has the cheapest energy prices in Europe due in part to more than 90% of the domestic energy production coming from burning the country's rich reserves of lignite, a low-grade coal, and fuel bills being subsidised by the government.

The largest-scale crypto mining is thought to be taking place in the north of the country, where the Serb-majority population refuse to recognise Kosovo as an independent state and have consequently not paid for electricity for more than two decades.

There is serious money to be made – and in a time of ready energy supply it was being made. The number of people mining cryptocurrencies in Kosovo is thought to have skyrocketed in recent years. Groups such as Albanian Crypto Amateurs on Facebook and Crypto Eagles on Telegram have exploded with thousands of new members, though it is unclear how many are mining cryptocurrency, or on what scale.

But the good times appear to be over – at least for now – and the developments in Kosovo highlight one of the big questions about the future of bitcoin and other such digital currency.

The latest calculation from Cambridge University's bitcoin electricity consumption index suggests that global bitcoin mining consumes 125.96 terawatt hours a year of electricity, putting its consumption above Norway (122.2 TWh), Argentina (121 TWh), the Netherlands (108.8 TWh) and the United Arab Emirates (113.20 TWh).

Protest against power cuts in Pristina
A protest against power cuts in Pristina. The cuts were introduced because of an increase in consumption, low domestic production and high import prices. Photograph: Valdrin Xhemaj/EPA

Meanwhile, Kosovans spent the final days of 2021 in darkness as domestic and international factors combined to cause energy shortages and rolling blackouts across the country. At the peak of the recent crisis, an unforeseen shutdown at one of its two ageing power plants left Kosovo importing about 40% of its energy on international markets – where prices have soared – and the government was forced to provide an emergency subsidy to help meet the costs.

Kosovo's minister of economy, Dr Artane Rizvanolli, said the ban had been a "no-brainer".

"We have allocated €20m for subsidising energy, which is probably not going to be sufficient, and this is taxpayers' money that is going to subsidise electricity consumption," she said. "On the other hand we have crypto mining, which is a highly energy-intensive activity and is not regulated."

Kosovo is not alone. Last September, the 10 most powerful regulators in China vowed to kill off what was then the world's biggest cryptocurrency mining industry.

In Iceland, the country's national power company, Landsvirkjun, has said it will turn away potential cryptocurrency miners as the country is experiencing power shortages. Last week, a powerful committee in the US Congress announced it would convene a hearing on the issue. US cryptocurrency miners are believed to be the largest consumers of energy, followed by Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.

"It's time to understand and address the steep energy and environmental impacts it is having on our communities and our planet," said committee chairman Frank Pallone and Diana DeGette, who heads its oversight panel.

Alex de Vries, a Paris-based economist, said his initial estimates in a paper to be published later this year suggest just a quarter of the energy used by miners is renewable: "The question really is: what are you getting in return for that?"

Jason Deane, chief bitcoin analyst at Quantum Economics, said he believed there were a host of advantages, including the offer of instant, virtually free, financial transactions carried out without the use of a third party, with certainty that there will be instant settlement, and that the current teething problems need to be put in perspective.

Since the Kosovan authorities made the decision, police and customs officers have begun conducting regular raids, seizing hundreds of pieces of hardware.

While a 60-day state of energy emergency remains in place, the prospect of upcoming regulation and energy bill price rises leaves the future anything but certain.

"There are a lot of people who have invested in crypto mining equipment and it's not a small investment," cryptoKapo said. "People have even taken out loans to invest and the impact now is very bad on their lives."